How to read a Holodeck forecast.

WHAT HOLODECK IS

Holodeck is a probabilistic forecasting system. We use a swarm of language-model agents shaped into investment-committee personas to reason about questions about the future, then we fit a probability distribution over their answers and surface it to you as a single calibrated number with a confidence interval.

When we say a question has a 70% probability, we mean that across the kind of questions where Holodeck would output 70%, the underlying outcome should happen roughly 70% of the time. That is what calibration is. Our track record — including the misses — lives on the audit page.

WHAT HOLODECK IS NOT

Holodeck is analysis, not signal. It is not investment advice. It is not legal advice. It is not medical advice. It is not tax advice. It is not a personalized recommendation tailored to your circumstances, goals, or risk tolerance. We are not your fiduciary. Using Holodeck does not create an advisory, brokerage, or client relationship of any kind.

A probability is not a promise. Even calibrated probabilistic forecasts are wrong on individual questions — that’s the entire point of the probability. A 70% forecast is wrong about 30% of the time by design. Read the number that way.

NO RELIANCE

You should not make a material decision — investment, financial, business, legal, medical, or otherwise — based solely on a Holodeck forecast. Use Holodeck the way an institutional investment committee uses outside research: as one input among many, weighed against your own analysis, your own data, and the advice of qualified professionals.

We do not know your portfolio, your tax position, your liquidity needs, or your legal exposure. A general probability is not a fit for those facts.

PREDICTION MARKETS AND TRADING

Important. Holodeck is not designed for use as a trading or betting signal. We compare our forecasts to Kalshi and Polymarket prices on the audit page because those are useful calibration references — not because we are recommending you trade on the difference.

If you use a Holodeck forecast to place a position on a prediction market, a futures market, a sports book, or any other wagering or trading venue, you do so entirely at your own risk and on your own judgment. We make no representation that any forecast will outperform the market price, that any market is liquid, fair, or available in your jurisdiction, or that any specific bet would be profitable. You are responsible for understanding the rules and legality of any market you participate in.

We are not a broker, a dealer, an exchange, a designated contract market, a swap execution facility, or a registered investment adviser. Holodeck does not execute trades, custody funds, or accept orders.

REAL ESTATE AND PRIVATE MARKETS

Holodeck’s deepest coverage is in real estate and adjacent private markets. Forecasts about rent growth, cap rates, occupancy, transaction volume, regional submarket performance, and similar topics are informational and are not an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any specific property, fund, deal, sponsor, partnership, or security. Any institutional decision — underwriting, allocation, acquisition, disposition — should be made through the diligence process and counsel that decision deserves.

ACCURACY, AUDIT, AND LIMITATIONS

We publish our calibration methodology and our running track record, including the predictions we got wrong, on the audit page. Our reported Brier scores are computed from time-gated, audit-logged predictions only. Earlier batches that did not meet that standard are labeled as such and excluded from the public headline.

That said, calibration is statistical. Past performance on any sample of questions does not guarantee any specific accuracy on any future question. Performance varies across domains, time horizons, sample sizes, and question difficulty. The audit page is the honest picture; read it before you weight a forecast heavily.

IF YOU NEED ACTUAL ADVICE

Talk to a qualified professional. For investments, that’s a registered investment adviser. For tax, a CPA or tax attorney. For legal exposure, an attorney. For real estate transactions, a licensed broker, your counsel, and your underwriter. Holodeck is a tool that complements that work, not a substitute for it.