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“Will US GDP growth for Q4 2025 be reported as positive?”

90.49%

probability - 375 agents consulted

Swarm result

Will US GDP growth for Q4 2025 be reported as positive?

Consensus probability

90.49%

YES · n = 375 agents  · P10 87.29%  · P90 95.2%

Convergence

How the swarm converged

Agent estimates over the course of deliberation

0%25%50%75%100%Agents deliberating →
P10
87%
P50
90%
P90
95%

Lines on chart

Swarm aggregate
Contrarian Macro PM
Goldman-Style Chief Economist
Fed Watcher
Credit & Fixed Income Strategist
Commodity Analyst
Behavioral Finance Researcher
Quantitative Strategist
Emerging Markets Specialist
Pension Fund CIO
Central Bank Watcher (ECB/BOJ/PBOC)
Distressed Debt Vulture
Reddit Retail Investor / Meme Sentiment

Archetype breakdown

Where the swarm disagreed

Cluster web and opinion distribution

90%YESCMP88%GSCE93%FW90%C&FIS91%CA90%BFR94%QS95%EMS87%

Archetypes in this swarm

CMPContrarian Macro PM
GSCEGoldman-Style Chief Economist
FWFed Watcher
C&FISCredit & Fixed Income Strategist
CACommodity Analyst
BFRBehavioral Finance Researcher
QSQuantitative Strategist
EMSEmerging Markets Specialist

Opinion Spread

100% say YES
P1087.3%P5090.5%P9095.2%0-1020-3040-5060-7080-90probability bucket (%)

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Probabilistic forecast generated by an AI agent swarm — not investment, legal, or financial advice. Holodeck is not designed for use as a trading or wagering signal; if you act on this forecast on a prediction market or in any trade, you do so at your own risk. See the Forecasting Disclaimer · Terms · Privacy.